Thin Film PV

Katherine Steiner-Dicks speaks to Finlay Colville Director of Marketing Solar  at the world's largest laser manufacturer Coherent Inc.

Katherine Steiner-Dicks speaks to Finlay Colville Director of Marketing Solar

 at the world's largest laser manufacturer Coherent Inc. Finlay Colville is responsible for

 Coherent's solar lasers applications and process tools for solar cell manufacturers. We ask him his thoughts on which upcoming and complementary technologies could have an impact on the bottom lines of thin film producers; the impact of low c-Si manufacturing on the thin film industry; and what the solar cell industry would look like if heavyweight First Solar was taken out of the mix. Q: We're interested in making

 producers and those within the supply chain

 aware of upcoming technologies that can affect their bottom line. What do you think will have an impact on the thin film industry this year in terms of complementary

 technologies? A: The market today is dominated by three technologies which impact down through the equipment supply-chain. The first two relate to crystalline silicon. High-efficiency and low-cost c-Si approaches collectively are expected to contribute around 75% of production (with the remaining 25% coming from the various thin-film approaches). The third technology is CdTe specifically and the success of First Solar. If we remove First Solar from the equation for now then the driving force in PV production is expected to remain low-cost c-Si manufacturing (especially from Taiwan) which is proving to offer lower $/W than a:Si and CIS/CIGS today. Q: While demand for thin film is more abundant which qualities will put

 crystalline silicon (c-Si)

 into the forefront of the solar energy sector? A: Crystalline silicon is benefitting considerably from increased silicon availability lowering feedstock cost and economies of scale. Expect also to see more high-efficiency c-Si cells come online with module efficiencies on poly c-Si at the 17-18%. Yes demand for thin-film is more abundant but this is almost exclusively due to one player in the market today – First Solar – who accounts for the vast proportion of thin-film production. If First Solar is taken out of the mix then c-Si production remains at the 90% level seen historically over the past few years. Q: While solar energy is considered a 'green' utility source how would you compare c-Si and thin film in terms of their impacts on the environment for the lifetime of the product (production end use and recycle)? A: No comment on this one Katherine. Q: How will the fact that more investors are focusing on new investments into downstream solar affect c-Si?Thin film? A: Downstream investment is very customer specific and should be evaluated on a case-by-case basis. In some cases this lessens the profit margins demanded at the cell/panel production stage. But fundamentally downstream investment or not there will be increasing pressure on thin-film producers to meet target production and cost deliverables in 2010 and be competitive with both c-Si and First Solar CdTe production.