Concentrated PV

The destabilising impact of cut-price Chinese crystalline silicon is being offset by protectionist moves in the US market. Will that be enough to give CPV a fighting chance?

Last month Shi Yonghong, of the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery of Electronic Products, made the case for the defence. 

“China-produced PV products have price advantages as the industry chain has developed rapidly in recent years in the country,” the deputy chief of the chamber, which is representing 14 Chinese panel makers, is cited as saying in a statement. 

But, he added: “The prices of solar panels and other related products have fallen in the US because of a global oversupply of their raw material, crystalline silicon, not due to products made in China.”

Yonghong was, of course, hitting out at moves by the US government to impose an import tariff on China-made solar cells that are seen as benefiting from Chinese subsidies and swamping the American market, to the detriment of local manufacturers. 

The anti-dumping saga, which started by an action from German manufacturer SolarWorld, is still unfolding, with a final determination from the US Department of Commerce expected in October. 

But the measures in place so far, including a preliminary finding and recommendation for a 30% duty on solar cells from China, are already having an impact. The Coalition for American Solar Manufacturing claims Chinese solar cell imports fell 66% between March and April. 

Chinese manufacturers: can they still avoid the tariffs?

It is perhaps too early to say how much of an effect this will have on the PV market in North America, though. If Chinese manufacturers cannot find a way around the tax (and that is a big if), then US solar cell makers could indeed face less competition. 

The price of modules and arrays in America could thus potentially rise, by around 12% and 3% respectively, according to published figures from IHS iSuppli. Could this give some breathing space to hitherto less-competitive solar technologies such as CPV? 

Here again, the jury is still out. “It certainly helps CPV,” believes MJ Shiao, senior analyst, solar markets at GTM Research. “The caveat is all of the Chinese companies that are going to ship to the US in volume are going to skirt around the tariff in some form or another. 

“Either they are going to sell through Taiwan or they are going to manufacture cells in the US or in other locations, like Malaysia or Mexico, so they are not going to be blocked with this 30% tariff. They are going to find some way in.” 

If there are any cost increases, Shiao says, they will at most take PV up “to where costs should have been” if the Chinese had not entered the market. In summary, “it slows the downward force of crystalline silicon prices, which will definitely help CPV. But whether that suddenly overnight makes it competitive remains to be seen.”  

CPV prospects

Other observers are even less optimistic about the prospects for CPV. Paul Messerschmidt, energy consultant at the financial services consulting firm Syzygy Capital, says: “The economics are still so favourable for solar PV that even triple-digit tariffs keep prices substantially below CPV.

“By re-sourcing panels from locations other than China, even tier-one panels are on the market at sub-$1-per-watt levels.”

So for the time being, it looks as though Yonghong and his colleagues have little to worry about, and CPV will continue to face an uphill struggle to demonstrate cost competitiveness. Right now, though, the tariffs only apply in the US. 

Admittedly this is a major and growing market for solar energy, but there are of course others. Could Europe put up barriers to Chinese PV, too? 

The financially precarious position of most European solar markets makes them unlikely candidates for a trade war with a rich partner such as China, but, says Shiao: “There is an indication that there is intent to follow suit. 

Official stance

“SolarWorld has said that it is trying to gather together a case. There’s a lot of rumours that a case would start. It remains to be seen whether it will actually go through, but there are definitely parties that are interested in it.”

For now, the official stance at the European Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA) is that: “It is not up to EPIA to take action in this regard, or to judge whether improper trade practices have occurred. 

“However, the EPIA supports the right of companies to make complaints about perceived unfair trade practices. And it is up to the European Commission and other trade authorities to pay particular attention, both internationally and within the EU, to protectionist measures.”

Whether all this points to a widening of the trade war is uncertain. Messerschmidt says: “In my opinion, China and SolarWorld will come to terms and find ways to capture the market. There is much to be gained by ‘co-opetition’ rather than a squabble over the race to the bottom.”

Whatever the outcome, it seems likely CPV will have to continue to fight its own battles by creating greater cell or system efficiencies through technology and manufacturing methods, and tapping niche or new markets.